Monday, November 10, 2008

Avoiding Irrational Exuberance

The last decade has proven that when America loves something, it really loves it. First we had the DotCom bubble, then it was a Housing bubble surrounded by a Credit bubble made. Now, it seems we are crazy about President-Elect Obama. Gallop just released a poll showing President-Elect Obama has a 70% favorability rating (compared to President Bush’s 27% job approval rating).

As the election approached and it looked like Senator Obama might become President Obama, I began to wonder, would Obama’s popularity become a burden? While President George W. Bush had the luxury of low expectations, will President Barack Obama have the burden of high expectations?

At 70%, there isn’t much “head room” for Obama to go up but there is plenty of room for him to go down. Granted, many presidents have had higher ratings, G.W. Bush hit 92% after 9/11, Clinton hit 73%, Johnson and Kennedy both hit 80% while FDR and Truman hit 84% and 87% respectively. However, the swing in these approval ratings can be quite brutal: GWB dropped to a low of 19%, Clinton 36%, Johnson 35% and Truman 22%. Of those previously listed, only Kennedy and FDR managed to avoid similar depths with ratings at 56% and 48%, respectively. [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Approval_rating]

At some point, the bloom is going to come off the rose and we need to be prepared for it. As I traveled around the 8 counties in my region during the presidential campaign, I heard people voice a wide array of hopes and expectations for an Obama Administration. Some were reasonable and some were not. Those people in the latter category are certain to be disappointed.

I supported Barack Obama for President for some fundamental reasons:

1) His pledge not to take PAC and corporate money would give him a freer hand to bring about reform;
2) He understands the constitution at a level deeper than any president in my 45 years;
3) He is deliberate in his decision making and has shown an ability incorporate divergent opinion to build consensus.
4) He expressed a view of foreign policy that represents an appreciation for nuance.

What I think is important here is that my support is based more on general principles rather than specific agenda items. I know that President Obama is going to disappoint me -- it’s inevitable. There is just no way that another person can do everything I want him or her to do. Even I disappoint myself from time to time.

I think those of us who worked so hard to get Barack Obama elected have to find a way to mange our expectations while at the same time working to hold our new Administration accountable. That is our duty as citizens.

Ironically enough, I think Candidate Obama’s own words best reflect the best approach: “No Drama” and “Slow and steady wins the race.”

Weekly Poll